Alexandre Boumezoued (UPMC)

Population dynamics for longevity risk

jeudi 12 février 2015, 9h30 - 10h30

Salle de réunion, espace Turing

We propose a model for human population dynamics. This model, inspired by recent advances in the field of mathematical ecology, allows to take into account age but also specific individual haracteristics. The population is subject to multiple changes at the level of individuals, who have demographic intensities linked to birth, death and evolution of their characteristics: this framework is an extension of traditional birth and death processes.

We will present this model, its simulation and also the coherent micro-macro point of view: in a large population framework, {i.e.} when the size of the population goes to infinity, demographic stochasticity vanishes and the population is described by an equation that extends deterministic equations well known in demography.

Such model can be used to understand the impact of microscopic quantities on aggregate patterns. In this spirit, we will try to address the two following questions:

1. How is the age pyramid modified if some causes of death (as cancer) are eliminated ?

2. How can individual birth patterns in heterogenous populations create artificial mortality changes (“cohort effect”) ?