Simon Cauchemez (School of Public Health and Imperial College, London)

Inferring transmission characteristics of influenza: from aggregated surveillance data to detailed outbreak investigations

vendredi 8 avril 2011, 9h30 - 10h45

Salle de réunion, espace Turing

In this talk, I will discuss statistical methods for the analysis of data on the transmission of pathogens in human populations. Looking at different types of data on influenza transmission (household studies from the 2009 influenza pandemic, a detailed outbreak investigation in a school in Pennsylvania or aggregated surveillance data), I will highlight challenges inherent to the analysis of such data as well as the diversity of statistical techniques that have been developed to tackle those challenges (Bayesian data augmentation, Sequential Monte Carlo, tree reconstruction methods…). I will also discuss how those analyses are used to inform the policy process.