Many proposals for the identification of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding require an instrumental variable or negative control that satisfies strong, untestable exclusion restrictions. In this talk, I will instead show how one can identify causal effects for a point exposure by using a measured confounder as a ‘bespoke instrumental variable’. This strategy requires an external reference population that does not have access to the exposure, and a stability condition on the confounder-outcome association between reference and target populations. This is joint work with David Richardson (UC Irvine), Zach Shahn (CUNY) and Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen (UPenn).

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